After Mubarak, a New Mideast Narrative

WASHINGTON -- The "Arab Spring" has analysts searching for the right historical comparison. Is it like 1848, and the wave of revolution that swept Europe? Or is it 1989 and the fall of the Berlin Wall? Or perhaps 1979, and the toppling of the Shah of Iran by Muslim radicals?

The democratic uprising of 2011 has elements of all of the above, and the spirit of change mostly has been exhilarating. But the loudest noise I hear from the Middle East just now isn't from the barricades but from frightened leaders who say, with the desperation of the French army retreating in disarray at Waterloo in 1815: "Sauve qui peut!" Save yourself if you can!

The 1815 analogy is useful because it reminds us that an old structure of power -- a hegemonic system dominated by the United States -- is coming apart as the world changes, and that a new framework will have to be built to maintain stability. In 1815, that process of adjustment led to the Congress of Vienna and a new security architecture -- a woolly but important topic to which I will return.

Back to the politics of self-preservation, circa 2011: The tactics vary, country by country. Some Arab leaders (notably King Abdullah II in Jordan) are encouraging political change, in the hope they can build new legitimacy; others (Moammar Gaddafi in Libya and, lately, Bashar al-Assad in Syria) are using military force to brutalize their people into submission. The brutalizers may gain a few weeks' breathing space through intimidation, but Assad and Gaddafi are likely to fail. They have delegitimized themselves by firing on their own citizens.

The backdrop of this frantic self-preservation is the breakup of America's reluctant empire. The kings and presidents (not to mention people in the streets) saw in Egypt that the United States wouldn't rescue its clients. Exhausted by Iraq and Afghanistan (and perhaps also made wiser by these wars), America wasn't in the business of saving autocratic dictators.

America's abandonment of President Hosni Mubarak shocked Israelis, Saudis and other status-quo powers, but it was actually just an admission of reality. When you have a million people in Tahrir Square who are prepared to die for a cause, no foreign or domestic power can stop them.

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/05/19/framework_for_an_arab_spring_109914.html

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